“Training is principally an act of faith.” –Franz
Stampfl
For serious athletes, the
purpose of training is to improve performance relative to a specific event – an
A-priority race. Throughout the Base and Build periods you should be looking for
indicators of improving readiness for this event. The closer you get to race
day, the more important it is to have some idea of how well you may do. Not
only does this build confidence, it also allows you to plan alternative
strategies and consider your tactical responses given certain race situations.
Not all workouts
throughout your preparation for the race are of equal value when it comes to
predicting race readiness. The Base period merely prepares you for the
challenging workouts of the Build period, which typically starts 10 to 12 weeks
prior to race day. The workouts in Base are seldom good predictors. The Build
weeks leading up to the start of the Peak period, or “taper,” is the most critical
time in the season. How your training goes during the 8 or 9 weeks of Build
largely determines how well you will race. Many of these Build sessions will
tell you if progress is being made.
During Build you should be
getting frequent feedback from training sessions that serve as indicators
– predictors – of how you will do on
race day. If all is going well these predictors should steadily improve so that
by the time you start to taper, 2 or 3 weeks prior to the race, there is little
doubt that you will be race-ready. The most important question is: What are
good predictors?
Below I’ve listed several
commonly used metrics – things that are measurable in training sessions – which
are often used to get this “how am I progressing” feedback. Some metrics are
better predictors than others. I’ve categorized them here as Weak, Moderate,
and Strong Performance Predictors. I primarily rely on Strong predictors
whenever possible. These are the most likely to give you reliable clues as to
how race day will go. But occasionally I’ll check a Moderate predictor just
because there hasn’t been a recent Strong indicator. Also, several Moderate
indicators all indicating the same trend may well be a strong predictor.
We may disagree on whether
or not a predictor is Weak, Moderate, or Strong. And, in fact, for some
athletes who are training for unique events, what is usually a Moderate
predictor may be Strong. Weak predictors are unlikely to make the leap all the
way up to Strong.
The metrics I’ve listed below
are not all-inclusive. They are the ones I commonly get from analysis software
such as TrainingPeaks or WKO+.
There are other personal metrics
I haven’t listed that for some may prove to be Strong performance predictors.
For example, depending on the athlete and the event terrain, watts per kilogram
(“w/kg”) or pounds per inch of height could be a Strong predictor. An athlete who is carrying excess weight
potentially will race better simply by dropping a few pounds/kilograms even if all
other metrics change. But for other
athletes weight may not be limiting performance at all. All that’s included below
are session-related data.
I frequently refer below
to “key workouts.” I define these as the most important sessions in a Build period training week.
They are usually either high intensity, long duration, or both. They generally fall into the category of
“advanced abilities” as described in my Training Bible books: muscular
endurance, anaerobic endurance, and sprint power. Race simulation sessions are
always key workouts. Other key sessions may be intervals, repeats, hill
training, or group workouts – whatever is critical to your preparation.
Weak Performance
Predictors
● Max or lactate
threshold heart rate
● Average cadence for a
workout or week
● Weekly miles/kilometers/hours/TSS
● Calories/kilojoules
expended/produced per week
● Feet or meters of
vertical ascent in a week (“VAM”)
● Time in heart
rate/power/pace/speed zones per week
Moderate Performance
Predictors
● Minimal heart rate
increase or power fade at aerobic event intensity – “Decoupling” (P:HR)
● Improving power/pace
relative to aerobic heart rate over time – “Efficiency Factor” (EF)
● “Performance Management
Chart” (PMC) data – “CTL,” “ATL,” and “TSB.”
● Distance/duration of
key workouts
● Event-specific pacing
of key workouts (“Variability Index”)
● Power Profile
comparisons
● Event-specific calories/kilojoules expended/produced in
key workouts
● Event-specific “Training Stress Score” (TSS) for key
workouts
● Previous performance in
the same event
● Time in power/pace zones
in key workouts
● “Rating of Perceived
Exertion” (RPE) relative to power/pace in key workouts
Strong Performance
Predictors
● Functional Threshold
Power/Pace (“FTP”)
● Peak power/pace for
event-critical durations (6 sec, 5 minutes, 30 minutes, 3 hours, or etc)
● The accumulation of
seasonal-best peak power/pace in the last few weeks of Build
● Event-specific power/pace for an event-specific duration
in key workouts
● Recent tune-up race
performance
